MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY


In Junior Oils, Size Really Does Matter

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By: MineralStox.com

One of the most lucrative places for investors in the last year has been the junior oil stocks. Many are up more than five fold.

There are two main types of junior energy stocks:

1) Slow but steady growth domestic plays – these are companies that assemble land packages in the continental US or Canada, and grow their production by 50 or 100 barrel a day wells – sometimes they get up to 200 or so.

2) The higher risk, higher impact exploration, which is mostly done internationally or offshore.

Lately the market has been giving the big international projects a lot of attention – and money. None of these big plays are cheap to explore – there is often tens of millions of dollars in 2D and 3D seismic before a $30- or $40 million dollar well gets drilled.

But these plays are getting funded, and trading strong daily volumes of stock.

Here are three high-impact junior oil plays that will drill within the next year. With success, each could give shareholders a multiple of their current price.

In alphabetical order:

Petromanas Inc. (TSX Venture:PMI) has just announced a $60 million financing for their large, 100% owned Albanian oil play. While Bankers Petroleum has made the country famous for heavy, shallow oil, Petromanas is also planning to drill deeper targets, looking for light oil. An independent report suggests that even the shallow targets they will be drilling in early 2011 have a P50 resource of 150 million barrels. That’s a huge target. Their first big well is planned to be drilled in early 2011.

PMI also has a huge land position, stretching through 6,500 km2 of the Albanian foothills. So if management can unlock the geology and chemistry of the rock, the market will quickly give them value for a series of wells.

www.petromanas.com

Tag Oil (TSX Venture:TAO) has a 100% working interest in 2.2 million acres of an oil shale play in New Zealand. There are actually two shales, one on top of each other, called the Waipawa and Whangai shales.

Tag does have some small production, 300 barrels of oil per day (bopd), but the big prize for investors is the huge shale resource play, which has the potential to host more than ten billion barrels of oil in place (OOIP). Based on seismic and historical drilling, an independent geological report estimates there is potential for 180 million recoverable barrels. They just raised $17 million.

Tag is expecting to drill the shale play in late 2010 or early 2011.

www.tagoil.com

Xcite Energy (TSX Venture:XEL) is developing the Bentley Field in the North Sea, off the east coast of Scotland. The field has the potential to host 900 million barrels of oil – almost 10% of the North Sea’s entire OOIP. The field has been drilled before, so management knows the oil is there, and what its characteristics are. Independent estimates for recoverable oil range from 80 million – 160 million barrels.

After raising $38 million in early 2010, management has been getting the drill ready and hopes to spud in July 2010, with results in mid-September 2010. If successful, the well will come on-stream in early 2011 and five more wells will get drilled. The company could go from zero to 15,000 bopd production and from zero to 100 million barrels in reserves in the next 18 months.

www.xcite-energy.com